ARGUS READING ROOM 01 / PERSPECTIVES
Read macro writers with distinctive convictions. Preserve disagreement, reasoning and conditions for testing their views.
These are ARGUS bilingual digests, not full republications or authorized translations. Views retain their original publication dates. Newly discovered articles enter review before publication.
AI 债务堆积，信用市场为何仍然乐观？
Richter questions whether yield-seeking bond investors adequately price AI financing risk.
AI 支出带来的利润，何时变成现金流？
Damodaran separates AI-driven earnings growth from free cash flow.
利率上升不只因为债券义警
Mauldin links rising long yields to inflation, growth and competition for capital.
利率干预与财政问题的根源
Suppressing yields does not resolve the causes pushing them higher.
安全叙事背后的 AI 债务与救助押注
Hayes bets that AI credit stress will ultimately provoke more dollar liquidity.
繁荣与脆弱，是同一条路的两面
Hussman examines corporate profits, sector deficits and valuations as one interconnected system.
以欧元兑日元寻找流动性拐点
Hayes uses EUR/JPY as his macro compass for dollar liquidity.
财政部长不同，流动性剧本相似
Hayes sees Treasury efforts to stabilize bonds as a potential liquidity tailwind for Bitcoin.
AI 智能体为何需要算力货币
Hayes imagines tradable compute underpinning an agent economy while promoting his own project.
债务陷阱：喜欢支出，却难以承担成本
Mauldin sees politically persistent deficits and a debt burden that weakens growth in return.
日元升值未必只有去杠杆一种路径
Hayes favors yen intervention funded through Treasury repos over aggressive rate hikes.
AI 繁荣的尽头可能是信用救助
Hayes compares AI construction to a credit-driven property cycle and bets on an eventual rescue.
美联储不能直接投票降低房贷利率
Mauldin emphasizes the Fed’s different influence over short rates and long-term financing costs.
投资正在进入一个更碎片化的世界
Alden argues for less dependence on long-term political promises as global order fragments.
私人信贷：资产风险与赎回恐慌要分开
Marks separates borrower fundamentals from investor redemption behavior.
战争、能源与财政的混乱飞轮
Alden retains gradual expansion as her base case while warning energy shocks could trigger cascading stress.
AI 真实进步，投资回报仍未确定
Marks believes in AI’s real value while retaining doubts about excessive infrastructure investment.
渐进扩表已经开始
Alden distinguishes reserve-management expansion from stimulus QE while recognizing both create base money.
AI 可以改变世界，也可以让投资者亏钱
Marks argues a technological revolution and an investment bubble can coexist.
贬值交易为何不是一个新故事
Alden recognizes long-run debasement risks but cautions against chasing narratives after prices have moved.
当 AI 投资被包装为一场战争
Hunt challenges the AI arms-race narrative and the resource allocation behind it.
信用市场的蟑螂，未必意味着管道失灵
Marks warns of fraud accumulated in easy conditions without directly diagnosing systemic collapse.
财政略收紧，货币可能放松
Alden sees tariffs as a temporary fiscal brake unlikely to reverse structural deficits.
美债不是一句“我们欠自己”就能解释
Alden emphasizes creditor structure and purchasing power rather than dismissing fiscal risks using past experience.
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