Observatory / Methodology
Research archive
RESEARCH ARCHIVEPrimary data and report excerpts are labeled separately. Incomplete history stays incomplete.About the data
METHODOLOGY & DATA

Coverage & sources

Counts use each indicator’s latest valid observation. Verification does not imply that data is current.

51Primary-source indicators
33Report-only indicators
2Awaiting data

Global liquidity

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IndicatorHistory availableObservationsSource status
Bank reserves → 93Verified primary sourceFederal Reserve H.4.1 · Verified on 2026-10-09
Treasury General Account · TGA → 93Verified primary sourceFederal Reserve H.4.1 · Verified on 2026-10-09
Federal Reserve total assets → 93Verified primary sourceFederal Reserve H.4.1 · Verified on 2026-10-09
Overnight reverse repo · ON RRP → 443Verified primary sourceNew York Fed · Verified on 2026-10-10
Dollar funding pressure · SOFR−IORB → 193Calculated from primary dataNew York Fed / Federal Reserve · matched-date spread · Verified on 2026-10-10
10Y real yield → 195Verified primary sourceUS Treasury · Verified on 2026-10-10
BTC ETF net flows → 4Report excerpt · Unverified
Stablecoin supply → 2Report excerpt · Unverified
BTC relative strengthNo observations yet0Awaiting data
2-year nominal Treasury yield → 195Verified primary sourceUS Treasury · Verified on 2026-10-10
10-year nominal Treasury yield → 195Verified primary sourceUS Treasury · Verified on 2026-10-10
30-year nominal Treasury yield → 195Verified primary sourceUS Treasury · Verified on 2026-10-10
DXY dollar index → 8Report excerpt · Unverified
10-year term premium · ACM month-end estimate → 33Verified primary sourceNew York Fed ACM public model data · Verified on 2026-10-09
Global credit stress · OFR contribution → 461Verified primary sourceUS Treasury OFR · credit-stress contribution · Verified on 2026-10-10

China economy

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IndicatorHistory availableObservationsSource status
Manufacturing PMI: new orders → 13Verified primary sourceNational Bureau of Statistics · Verified on 2026-10-09
Household long-term loans → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Corporate long-term loans → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Industrial producer prices (YoY) → 8Verified primary sourceNational Bureau of Statistics · Verified on 2026-10-09
Net FX settlement → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
M1 growth YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
M2 growth YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
M1 minus M2 growth gap → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
CFETS RMB basket index → 2Report excerpt · Unverified
Non-bank cross-border net inflow → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Monthly trade surplus → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
New aggregate social financing → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Government bond net financing → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
CPI inflation YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Core CPI inflation YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Industrial profits monthly YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Industrial profits YTD YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Manufacturing PMI → 2Report excerpt · Unverified
Non-manufacturing business activity → 2Report excerpt · Unverified
Non-manufacturing new orders → 2Report excerpt · Unverified
PPI inflation MoM → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Four upstream sectors’ contribution to PPI MoM → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Services PMI new orders → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Retail sales monthly YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Fixed-asset investment YTD YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Private investment YTD YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Property investment YTD YoY → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
USD/CNY onshore intraday reading → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
USD/CNY daily fixing → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
Bank-client FX settlement ratio (report excerpt) → 2Report excerpt · Unverified

AI infrastructure

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IndicatorHistory availableObservationsSource status
Four hyperscalers: cash capex → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC company filings · locally aggregated · Verified on 2026-10-09
OpenAI annualized revenue → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
TSMC consolidated monthly revenue → 9Verified primary sourceTSMC · Verified on 2026-10-09
Samsung operating cash flow / revenue → 6Calculated from primary dataSamsung consolidated financial statements · Verified on 2026-10-09
Advanced packaging capacityNo observations yet0Awaiting data
Microsoft · Long-term debt incl. current portion → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Microsoft · Verified on 2026-10-09
Microsoft · Current portion of long-term debt → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Microsoft · Verified on 2026-10-09
Microsoft · Finance lease liabilities → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Microsoft · Verified on 2026-10-09
Microsoft · Cash and short-term investments → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Microsoft · Verified on 2026-10-09
Amazon · Noncurrent long-term debt → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Amazon · Verified on 2026-10-09
Amazon · Current long-term debt → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Amazon · Verified on 2026-10-09
Amazon · Cash and cash equivalents → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Amazon · Verified on 2026-10-09
Amazon · Finance lease liabilities → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Amazon · Verified on 2026-10-09
Amazon · Operating lease liabilities → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Amazon · Verified on 2026-10-09
Alphabet · Noncurrent long-term debt → 7Verified primary sourceSEC · Alphabet · Verified on 2026-10-09
Alphabet · Current long-term debt → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Alphabet · Verified on 2026-10-09
Alphabet · Cash and short-term investments → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Alphabet · Verified on 2026-10-09
Alphabet · Finance lease liabilities → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Alphabet · Verified on 2026-10-09
Alphabet · Operating lease liabilities → 7Verified primary sourceSEC · Alphabet · Verified on 2026-10-09
Meta · Noncurrent long-term debt → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Meta · Verified on 2026-10-09
Meta · Cash and cash equivalents → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Meta · Verified on 2026-10-09
Meta · Current operating lease liabilities → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Meta · Verified on 2026-10-09
Meta · Noncurrent operating lease liabilities → 10Verified primary sourceSEC · Meta · Verified on 2026-10-09
Microsoft operating cash flow → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Microsoft · Verified on 2026-10-10
Microsoft cash after capex (OCF minus cash CapEx) → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Microsoft · Verified on 2026-10-10
Amazon operating cash flow → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Amazon · Verified on 2026-10-10
Amazon cash after capex (OCF minus cash CapEx) → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Amazon · Verified on 2026-10-10
Alphabet operating cash flow → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Alphabet · Verified on 2026-10-10
Alphabet cash after capex (OCF minus cash CapEx) → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Alphabet · Verified on 2026-10-10
Meta operating cash flow → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Meta · Verified on 2026-10-10
Meta cash after capex (OCF minus cash CapEx) → 6Calculated from primary dataSEC · Meta · Verified on 2026-10-10

Energy & inflation

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IndicatorHistory availableObservationsSource status
Brent crude → 1Report excerpt · Unverified
WTI · Cushing weekly spot price → 92Verified primary sourceEIA · WTI Cushing spot · Verified on 2026-10-09
3-2-1 crack spread (WTI–Gulf Coast spot) → 92Calculated from primary dataEIA spot prices · Local calculation · Verified on 2026-10-09
Gasoline · Gulf Coast weekly spot price → 92Verified primary sourceEIA · Gulf Coast conventional gasoline spot · Verified on 2026-10-09
Diesel · Gulf Coast ULSD weekly spot price → 92Verified primary sourceEIA · Gulf Coast ultra-low sulfur diesel spot · Verified on 2026-10-09
US distillate inventories → 92Verified primary sourceEIA · Verified on 2026-10-09
Refinery utilization → 92Verified primary sourceEIA · Verified on 2026-10-09
US retail diesel → 92Verified primary sourceEIA · Verified on 2026-10-09
Oak Harbor LTL fuel surcharge → 5Verified primary sourceOak Harbor Freight Lines · Verified on 2026-10-09
Oak Harbor TL fuel surcharge → 5Verified primary sourceOak Harbor Freight Lines · Verified on 2026-10-09

How does ARGUS update?

Official-source numeric jobs run on Cloudflare daily at 09:30 Asia/Shanghai. Research is produced by GPT cloud tasks and submitted through the existing ARGUS publishing connection; Cloudflare checks submitted public reports every 20 minutes. Fetching, validation and synchronization do not call a language model. Report generation uses model tokens. If a source or submission fails, existing data remains available.

Can a rising chart be quoted as a bullish signal?

No. Cite the indicator name, statistical period, unit, source and verification status. A numerical direction is not a market conclusion; company consolidated debt and cash flows are not AI-only balances.

Three layers of evidence

Primary-source values have been checked against the linked original publication. Report excerpts retain the monitoring note’s wording and may still require independent verification. Indicators awaiting data stay empty. Verifying a value does not verify the note’s broader conclusions.

Reading the charts

  • The latest value shows the indicator’s level. The displayed change compares adjacent observations, in the stated unit or basis points.
  • Choose 3 months, 1 year or all available history. Windows end at the latest recorded period, not today.
  • The trend label compares the latest three observations with the preceding three. A difference below 1.5% of the maximum absolute value in the six-period window is labeled flat. Fewer than six observations, missing values or incomplete preliminary totals prevent a trend verdict.
  • A rising line means a rising value, not necessarily improving conditions. Theme judgments come from dated research notes or explicitly labeled primary-data reviews and can differ from an indicator’s numerical direction.

Dates, gaps and updates

The statistical period identifies what a value measures. A report date identifies when the note recorded it. A verification date identifies when ARGUS checked a primary source. These dates serve different purposes.

Explicit source release timestamps are preserved when available, including the monthly PPI releases. Otherwise, report-date midnight in Shanghai or a primary snapshot’s retrieval time serves as a fallback. A primary value enters the verified history no earlier than its verification time; these records do not reconstruct full intraday information availability. Verification is a dated snapshot, not a live feed or a promise of automatic updates.

Only observations available by the archive cutoff enter the charts. Daily, weekly and monthly series keep their original frequencies. Explicit null values form gaps, never zeroes; a single observation remains a point. Incomplete preliminary totals are not compared with complete periods.

Scope and revisions

Samsung cash conversion is calculated from consolidated quarterly operating cash flow and revenue. Same-year YTD totals are differenced before calculating the ratio; each observation links to all input statements. This includes non-AI businesses and is not a free cash flow margin.

TSMC revenue includes non-AI business; the source describes its 2026 monthly figures as unaudited. PMI new orders use the manufacturing component. Unit conversions and source-specific limits appear with each indicator.

Primary-source values take priority over report excerpts for the same period once the verification becomes available. New primary snapshots preserve previous versions locally. This edition does not provide complete historical revision replay. The ETF series includes later complete values, while dated reports retain their original limitations.

Chinese and English pages share the same numerical data. Source quotations stay in their original language. The website provides an archived baseline plus same-origin Cloudflare data reads; readers do not fetch third-party market APIs. Raw source files and personal holdings are excluded.