RESEARCH ARCHIVEPrimary data and report excerpts are labeled separately. Incomplete history stays incomplete.About the data
ARGUSX / COREWEAVE WATCH / 01
Who funds
the next round?
CoreWeave debt, funding duration, cash coverage and institutional put disclosures, with dated sources and explicit gaps in options evidence.
Edition 2026-10-20 · Financial snapshot 2026-06-30
OCC / OPTIONS SNAPSHOT
Where are deep out-of-the-money puts concentrated?
An OCC series-level snapshot is now available. Counts below cover the CRWV option root only, in contracts. Other roots and OTC positions are excluded; holder identities are not available.
Retrieved October 20, 2026, 09:31 UTC. OCC describes OI as derived from the prior day’s settlement, but this batch response has no explicit settlement date. October 19 is therefore not recorded as a confirmed OI date.
Definition and price reference
Our definition: strike K ≤ 70% of reference share price S. The October 19 close of $61.12 gives a $42.784 cutoff. This is an editorial definition, not an exchange standard or a synchronized delta/moneyness measure. The price is reported by Stock Analysis (attributed to S&P Global), cross-checked against FinanceCharts.
At K/S ≤80% ($48.896), put OI is 615,090 contracts. Date alignment affects classification; this settlement snapshot should not be mixed with a live premarket price.
Expiry distribution
Days to expiry are measured from October 20, 2026. Bars are scaled within this chart; percentages use total deep-OTM put OI as denominator.
View all 19 expiries
| Expiry | PUT OI | Share |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 12,456 | 2.5% |
| 2026-10-30 | 22,771 | 4.5% |
| 2026-11-06 | 8,818 | 1.8% |
| 2026-11-13 | 1,184 | 0.2% |
| 2026-11-20 | 27,932 | 5.6% |
| 2026-11-27 | 931 | 0.2% |
| 2026-12-18 | 83,624 | 16.6% |
| 2027-01-15 | 89,467 | 17.8% |
| 2027-02-19 | 7,575 | 1.5% |
| 2027-03-19 | 7,843 | 1.6% |
| 2027-04-16 | 4,397 | 0.9% |
| 2027-06-17 | 24,840 | 4.9% |
| 2027-09-17 | 9,339 | 1.9% |
| 2027-11-19 | 984 | 0.2% |
| 2027-12-17 | 30,068 | 6.0% |
| 2028-01-21 | 37,977 | 7.6% |
| 2028-06-16 | 44,294 | 8.8% |
| 2028-12-15 | 78,362 | 15.6% |
| 2029-01-19 | 9,759 | 1.9% |
Changes: a captured baseline, history still missing
One snapshot is verified so far. The raw response and checksum are retained; daily and weekly changes remain unavailable. This public OCC endpoint has no documented historical-date query. Cboe DataShop historical EOD data is a candidate for backfilling, but data and public-display rights have not been obtained.
Future comparisons must separate same-contract OI changes, threshold migration caused by price changes, and newly listed or expired contracts. Aggregate changes are not institutional buying, and trading volume cannot substitute for OI changes.
Market OI, institutional disclosures, intent: three separate layers
| Established | Not established |
|---|---|
| OCC: open contracts by strike and expiry | Holder identity, trade direction, or which positions are hedges |
| SEC 13F: Jane Street’s June-end put-equivalent shares (below) | Whether still held, whether deep-OTM, expiry, or intent |
Excluded: 4 rows under 1CRWV and 56 under 2CRWV. Their deliverables have not been verified. Each open contract has two sides; OI is not a count of bearish investors.
OCC batch documentation · OCC settlement convention · Stock Analysis · FinanceCharts · Cboe EOD · Download calculations and provenance
CHAPTER 01
Can the funding keep up?
Research date: October 20, 2026. Financial snapshot: June 30, 2026. These are not today’s cash balances. We follow the timing of customer collections, infrastructure spending and debt service.
After unamortized discounts and issuance costs.
5.524 / 7.513. A stock comparison, not DSCR.
3.663 / 14.117. External funding still matters.
This supports a financing-dependence thesis, not a finding of imminent default. New loan terms, delivery and actual collections are the next tests.
Q2 earnings release ↗CHAPTER 02
Debt has several layers
| June 30, 2026 | USD billion | Definition |
|---|---|---|
| Recourse debt | 31.405 | Carrying value |
| Non-recourse debt | 3.663 | Carrying value; customary carve-outs apply |
| Total debt | 35.068 | Carrying value, excluding leases below |
| Before unamortized discounts and costs | 35.551 | Matches the debt maturity schedule |
| Operating leases | 16.319 | Present-value liability |
| Finance leases | 0.221 | Present-value liability |
| Uncommenced leases | 35.5 | Undiscounted future payments, not current debt |
Do not add equipment financing twice or combine undiscounted future commitments with present-value liabilities as if they were one debt measure. Undrawn facilities are not cash.
Maturity schedule
| Period | USD billion |
|---|---|
| Remaining 2026 | 4.413 |
| 2027 | 6.184 |
| 2028 | 4.416 |
| 2029 | 2.421 |
| 2030 | 3.221 |
| Thereafter | 14.896 |
June 30 schedule, before later borrowings or repayments. The remaining six months of 2026 plus calendar 2027 are not “the next twelve months.”
Debt of $35.551bn divided by annualized H1 adjusted EBITDA is about 6.67×; using annualized Q2 gives 5.89×. These are mechanical run-rate comparisons, not trailing-twelve-month or covenant leverage measures.
10-Q: debt, leases and maturities ↗CHAPTER 03
EBITDA is not cash available for debt service
| Measure | Result | Important limit |
|---|---|---|
| H1 operating cash / cash capex | 26.0% | The rest is not necessarily all debt-funded |
| Q2 operating cash / cash capex | 10.6% | One quarter cannot be extrapolated mechanically |
| H1 operating cash less cash capex | −$10.454bn | Not a cash-runway estimate |
| Q2 adjusted EBITDA / net interest expense | 2.36× | Excludes principal and capex requirements |
| Q2 GAAP operating income | −$49m | Different from adjusted EBITDA |
For every $100 of cash capex
Gray is investment not covered by operating cash; cash reserves, equity or other financing can bridge it. Customer prepayments and working capital affect operating cash flow.
The 2.36× proxy uses net interest expense, not total cash interest. Capitalized interest and noncash items matter. A proper DSCR requires matched cash available for debt service and principal/interest payments; we do not publish a false-precision DSCR.
Financial statements and non-GAAP reconciliation ↗CHAPTER 04
Five-year debt. Three-year contracts.
$2.6bnDDTL 5.5 · August 10, 2026About five years of financing.
About five years of financing.
About three years of customer contracts, on average.
The announced facility is priced at SOFR + 5.50%. A facility amount is not a drawn balance: do not simply add it to June debt.
What bridges the timing difference: renewals, re-leasing, or residual GPU value? The structure permits renewal or re-leasing subject to agreement criteria. Average contract duration does not mean every contract expires together or that revenue necessarily disappears after year three.
The company presents shorter contracts as a way to reach more customers and potentially improve margins. Our research question is whether renewal economics and cash generation support the remaining debt.
Official DDTL 5.5 announcement ↗How does backlog become cash?
Commitment → delivery → service → collection → operating and equipment costs → debt service
Revenue backlog was $104bn at June 30. It establishes a scale of commitments, not $104bn of freely available cash. Delivery conditions, costs, timing and customer credit determine the cash available to lenders.
Backlog definition ↗CHAPTER 05
What is the credit market pricing?
Axios reported on October 16 that CoreWeave’s five-year CDS had approached 1,100bp the previous day. This is a dated media observation, not a verified October 20 live quote.
Axios report ↗Track bond price, yield to maturity, benchmark rates and credit spread separately. Higher secondary-market yields do not immediately reset existing fixed coupons. They can, however, signal tougher future financing conditions.
CDS-implied default probabilities depend on recovery assumptions and pricing models and include risk premia. They are not literal forecasts of bankruptcy.
Research hypothesis
Tighter financing → constrained investment or dilution → slower delivery and collections → more difficult refinancing. This is a path to test, not a claim that every step has occurred. Stable funding, better delivery and improving cash coverage would weaken the concern.
CHAPTER 06
Institutional puts: what the filing does—and does not—show
We extracted CRWV rows from Jane Street’s original SEC XML and aggregated other-manager rows within the filing. Holdings date: June 30, 2026. Filed: August 14. This is one verified sample, not a market-wide ranking.
| Jane Street disclosure | Underlying shares |
|---|---|
| PUT | 21,991,800 |
| CALL | 15,601,500 |
| Common stock | 13,885,024 |
These are underlying shares, not option contracts or premium paid. Strike, expiry and intent are missing. Subtracting call shares from put shares does not produce a net short position.
Original SEC 13F XML ↗| Question | Evidence status |
|---|---|
| Current institutional deep-OTM hedges | Not identifiable from these public disclosures |
| Strike and expiry of disclosed puts | Not disclosed in 13F |
| CRWV-root deep-OTM put OI | OCC snapshot added above; not a confirmed same-day market-wide total |
| Still held on October 20? | Not established by a June snapshot |
| Q3 institutional holdings | Incomplete before the November 16 filing deadline |
13F omits written options and does not supply a complete short or OTC hedge book. Exchange open interest does not identify the ultimate holder or strategy. Put volume is not net buying or newly opened positions.
SEC reporting rules and calendar ↗The options snapshot and these institutional disclosures are separate datasets. Matching their quantities cannot identify holders or prove hedging intent.
CHAPTER 07
Updates and corrections
Edition: October 20, 2026. This is a manually verified dated research snapshot. Live options and automatic topic updates are not connected. We retain observation dates when checking for new information.
New filings, financing terms or corrections may change the analysis. Submit primary sources through site feedback. This is research, not personalized trading advice.
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