BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-10-13

English research summary (the COMPLETE report is in Chinese above; this is not a full translation): https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-13/daily/

Main state remains S1 TRANSITION (~70% conviction), driven by FLOW and POSITIONING. Fed reserves support Q on the last official weekly reading, but the dollar strengthened, ETF buying lacks confirmation, and Bitcoin's latest decline coincided with rising liquidations. F is FRAGILE-NEGATIVE; feedback gain is tentatively REVERSING, without proof of sustained self-reinforcing deleveraging. S3 needs continuous liquidation/OI contraction with worsening flow or financial conditions. No evidence of policy action or a fresh Treasury session on October 12.

Data excerpts, with dated official and market sources: Fed weekly-average reserve balances were $3.029659 trillion as of October 7. The TGA weekly average was $0.880253 trillion as of October 7. The 2-year nominal Treasury yield was 4.80% on October 9. The adjacent 3-year yield was 4.89%; do not confuse maturities. The 10-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9. The 30-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.60% on October 9. The 10-year real Treasury yield was 2.91% on October 9. Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $0.211 hundred million on October 9. The October 12 ETF snapshot is incomplete, with IBIT/FBTC/HODL unreported. Total stablecoin supply was $3062.09 hundred million as of October 13 morning. The DXY traded near 102.58 intraday on October 12. The bond market was closed that day.