English research summary (the COMPLETE report is in Chinese above; this is not a full translation): https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-13/daily/

Main state remains S1 TRANSITION (~70% conviction), driven by FLOW and POSITIONING. Fed reserves support Q on the last official weekly reading, but the dollar strengthened, ETF buying lacks confirmation, and Bitcoin's latest decline coincided with rising liquidations. F is FRAGILE-NEGATIVE; feedback gain is tentatively REVERSING, without proof of sustained self-reinforcing deleveraging. S3 needs continuous liquidation/OI contraction with worsening flow or financial conditions. No evidence of policy action or a fresh Treasury session on October 12.

Data excerpts, with dated official and market sources:
Fed weekly-average reserve balances were $3.029659 trillion as of October 7. The TGA weekly average was $0.880253 trillion as of October 7.
The 2-year nominal Treasury yield was 4.80% on October 9. The adjacent 3-year yield was 4.89%; do not confuse maturities. The 10-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.24% on October 9. The 30-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.60% on October 9. The 10-year real Treasury yield was 2.91% on October 9.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $0.211 hundred million on October 9. The October 12 ETF snapshot is incomplete, with IBIT/FBTC/HODL unreported. Total stablecoin supply was $3062.09 hundred million as of October 13 morning.
The DXY traded near 102.58 intraday on October 12. The bond market was closed that day.

## Public sources

- [Fed H.4.1 — October 8 release, week ended October 7](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/)
- [US Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve)
- [US Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve)
- [Farside — US Spot Bitcoin ETF Daily Flows](https://farside.co.uk/btc/)
- [DefiLlama — Total Stablecoins](https://defillama.com/stablecoins)
- [CoinGlass — Bitcoin Price, Open Interest and Liquidations](https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC)
- [Reuters — Dollar near 18-month high, Oct 12](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-stays-near-18-month-high-mideast-conflict-inflation-data-focus-2026-10-12/)
- [SIFMA — Fixed income market close Oct 12 2026](https://www.sifma.org/news/press-releases/sifma-fixed-income-market-close-recommendations-in-the-u-s-the-u-k-and-japan-for-u-s-columbus-day-and-japan-health-and-sports-day-holidays-2026)
- [AP — Oct 12 stock market close](https://apnews.com/article/f07713e8b2e438ac5903b50f5ce97235)
- [Reuters — Mortgage convexity hedging and Treasury yields, Oct 12](https://www.reuters.com/business/us-yield-surge-triggers-mortgage-hedging-adds-bond-market-pressure-2026-10-12/)
- [SOFR October 2026 daily record](https://www.sofrrate.com/sofr-rate/2026-10)
- [Federal Reserve IORB rate 3.90%, September 2026](https://thefederalregister.org/documents/2026-20037/regulation-d-reserve-requirements-of-depository-institutions)