BTC Liquidity State-Machine Daily | 2026-10-16

This is an English summary. The complete original report is in Chinese, not a full English translation: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-16/daily/

S1 TRANSITION (72% qualitative confidence), drivers MACRO + FLOW. Lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar reflect partial financial easing, but higher credit risk, flat reserve supply and weak verified BTC cash flows preclude confirmed risk-on. Q neutral, P neutral/mixed, g tightening, F neutral/fragile. Feedback gain DECAYING. Policy reaction pressure APPROACHING, not activated. Expected and observed behavior remain broadly consistent; no two-window structural residual. Key invalidation: sustained spot inflows with healthy leverage and improving credit; renewed liquidity draining; or verified forced-deleveraging loop.

Research observations (source dates noted; estimates and preliminary prints are not official time-series revisions): Bank reserves 3.022 trillion USD Treasury General Account 0.883 trillion USD Two-year Treasury yield 4.77% Ten-year Treasury yield 5.10% Thirty-year Treasury yield 5.43% Ten-year real yield 2.78% October 14 BTC ETF net flow -2.614 hundred-million USD October 15 preliminary BTC ETF flow -0.076 hundred-million USD Stablecoin supply 3031.15 hundred-million USD October 14 SOFR-IORB spread -2bp