This is an English summary. The complete original report is in Chinese, not a full English translation: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-16/daily/

S1 TRANSITION (72% qualitative confidence), drivers MACRO + FLOW. Lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar reflect partial financial easing, but higher credit risk, flat reserve supply and weak verified BTC cash flows preclude confirmed risk-on. Q neutral, P neutral/mixed, g tightening, F neutral/fragile. Feedback gain DECAYING. Policy reaction pressure APPROACHING, not activated. Expected and observed behavior remain broadly consistent; no two-window structural residual. Key invalidation: sustained spot inflows with healthy leverage and improving credit; renewed liquidity draining; or verified forced-deleveraging loop.

Research observations (source dates noted; estimates and preliminary prints are not official time-series revisions):
Bank reserves 3.022 trillion USD
Treasury General Account 0.883 trillion USD
Two-year Treasury yield 4.77%
Ten-year Treasury yield 5.10%
Thirty-year Treasury yield 5.43%
Ten-year real yield 2.78%
October 14 BTC ETF net flow -2.614 hundred-million USD
October 15 preliminary BTC ETF flow -0.076 hundred-million USD
Stablecoin supply 3031.15 hundred-million USD
October 14 SOFR-IORB spread -2bp

## Public sources

- [Federal Reserve H.4.1, October 15, 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/)
- [U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve, October 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value_month=202610&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve)
- [U.S. Treasury Real Par Yield Curve, October 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value_month=202610&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve)
- [Farside Investors U.S. Bitcoin ETF Flows](https://farside.co.uk/btc/)
- [DefiLlama Stablecoin Supply](https://defillama.com/stablecoins)
- [CoinGlass Bitcoin Open Interest and Liquidations](https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC)
- [Reuters: AI Credit Worries, October 15, 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/global-markets-cds-ai-urgent-2026-10-15/)
- [DXY Daily Closes, October 2026](https://www.portfolio-terminal.com/markets/us-dollar-index/october-2026)
- [New York Fed SOFR data overview (reported by 500metrics)](https://500metrics.com/rates/sofr)
- [Federal Reserve IORB rate information](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reserve-balances.htm)