BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-10-11

BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily — October 11, 2026. The full, verified public report is in Chinese at https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-11/daily/ . This English section is a summary, not a full translation.

State: S1 TRANSITION, 78% qualitative confidence. Q is supportive thanks to lower Treasury cash balances and higher bank reserves. P remains tightening because real yields and long-end funding costs are high. g remains under pressure: Friday's modest BTC ETF inflow did not reverse the week's outflows, while stablecoin supply contracted. F has stabilized as weekend liquidation pressure eased. No S2 confirmation; no proof of sustained S3 liquidation cascade.

Verified observations: Bank reserves 3.029659 trillion USD (weekly average to Oct 7). Treasury General Account 0.880253 trillion USD (weekly average to Oct 7). 2-year US Treasury yield 4.80% (Oct 9). 10-year US Treasury yield 5.24% (Oct 9). 30-year US Treasury yield 5.60% (Oct 9). 10-year US real yield 2.91% (Oct 9). US spot BTC ETF inflow 0.211 hundred million USD (Oct 9). Total stablecoin supply 3058.8 hundred million USD (Oct 11 snapshot), 7-day change -0.30%.

Expected vs Actual: Once forced selling ends, price should stabilize even with weak inflows. This seems broadly consistent with the evidence, but low weekend liquidity prevents declaring a positive structural residual. Feedback Gain: STABLE. Policy reaction pressure: APPROACHING, constrained by inflation. Invalidation: sustained net inflows and healthy low-leverage strength would support S2; resumed fiscal liquidity drain and outflows would weigh toward S0; persistent forced liquidation with worsening flows or funding conditions would warrant S3 assessment.

Treasury tenor correction (2026-10-12): the Oct9 3Y yield4.89% was mislabeled as2Y. Correct readings: 2Y4.80%, 3Y4.89%, 10Y5.24%, 30Y5.60%; 10Y–2Y44bp. P evidence and the2Y observation are corrected; the remaining original research is preserved.