ARGUS.China Risk-on weekly · Historical module backfill
Original weekly report upgraded 5/10 to 6/10 as activity improved. Private credit remained 0/2; the reflation clock stayed at R2. Continued private-credit, M1 and order improvement is required.
This is a module backfill of an already-public historical report, not a new research run. Values and interpretations retain the original data windows; the complete original text and sources are linked below.
## overall · 6/10 · Early / Fragile Risk-on Evidence through: 2026-10-05 Original weekly report upgraded 5/10 to 6/10 as activity improved. Private credit remained 0/2; the reflation clock stayed at R2. Continued private-credit, M1 and order improvement is required.
## 01 · RMB / FX · 2/2 Evidence through: 2026-09-30 The report cited CFETS 102.93 as of September 24 and onshore USD/CNY around 6.707 on September 30. Basket and bilateral readings remain separate; no uniform closing series is claimed.
## 02 · Cross-border flows · 2/2 Evidence through: 2026-08-31 Latest monthly readings remained August: net FX settlement USD 48.5 billion, non-bank cross-border net inflow USD 62.4 billion and trade surplus about USD 119.1 billion. Subsequent balance-of-payments context left capital leakage under observation.
## 03 · Private credit · 0/2 Evidence through: 2026-08-31 August household long-term loans were −CNY 82.2 billion, corporate long-term loans +CNY 320 billion and M1 growth 4.1%. Government-driven financing did not establish a private-credit handoff.
## 04 · Prices / profits · 1/2 Evidence through: 2026-08-31 Industrial profits grew 15.7% YTD through August versus 4.2% in August alone. Profit breadth remained narrow. Cumulative and monthly growth remain distinct; headline profits do not confirm broad reflation.
## 05 · Domestic demand · 1/2 Evidence through: 2026-09-30 September manufacturing PMI was 50.1 and new orders 50.5, above 50 for a second month. Non-manufacturing new orders improved to 46.5 but remained below 50 and did not replace private-credit confirmation.