BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-11-01

English overview only — the full original report is in Chinese above; this is NOT a complete English translation. Full Chinese report link: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-11-01/daily/

November 1, 2026 (Asia/Shanghai): S3 DELEVERAGING, 60% confidence, FLOW + POSITIONING. The October 30 final US spot Bitcoin ETF outflow of $643.2 million and shrinking stablecoin supply continue to pressure verifiable cash demand. Binance states 90% of affected assets have been replenished with its SAFU, insurance and corporate resources; this is not a 90% recovery of stolen funds, nor proof that withdrawals have actually resumed. Although the latest BTC price snapshot has stabilized modestly, same-scope liquidation, basis and funding histories are insufficient to certify that deleveraging has ended. S3 to S1 requires the forced-selling feedback to stop, operational transferability to return, and actual inflows to stabilize.

Primary-source observations (same units as Chinese report): Bank reserves: 2.893770 trillion USD (week ended 2026-10-28). Treasury General Account: 0.999727 trillion USD (week ended 2026-10-28). 2Y Treasury: 4.56% (2026-10-30). 10Y Treasury: 4.94% (2026-10-30). 30Y Treasury: 5.31% (2026-10-30). 10Y real yield: 2.60% (2026-10-30). BTC ETF flow: -6.432 hundred-million USD (2026-10-30, final). Total stablecoin supply: 2967.21 hundred-million USD (2026-10-31). Policy reaction threshold: APPROACHING, not reached. Feedback gain: REVERSING, with signs of easing but no verified resolution. Investment implication: reduce leverage and wait for independent cross-layer confirmation.

Public sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ ; https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; https://defillama.com/stablecoins ; https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC ; https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/detail/1fdf1f61559c401da0435895ffcccb62