BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-10-30

This is an English overview; the complete original report is in Chinese, not translated in full. Full Chinese edition: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-30/daily/

State: S0 TIGHT (72% confidence); drivers MACRO + FLOW. Q is tightening: bank reserves declined again as Treasury cash balances rose. P is mixed: Treasury real yields and DXY fell, while repo funding and credit conditions do not yet confirm broad easing. g is mixed: US spot BTC ETFs gained $423.6m in Oct 26-28, almost entirely through IBIT, while stablecoin supply continued shrinking. F remains fragile and unconfirmed rather than in a documented deleveraging cascade. Feedback gain DECAYING; policy reaction pressure APPROACHING. A one-window negative residual remains inconclusive because Q and stablecoin supply are contracting. Next: ETF/stablecoin flows, reserve balances/TGA versus SOFR-IORB, and comparable BTC OI/funding/basis/liquidations. No price-only thesis stop.

Verified observation excerpts (as published in the Chinese report)

• Reserve balances averaged 2.893770 trillion USD in the week ended October 28, down 68.837 billion USD week over week.
• TGA averaged 0.999727 trillion USD in the week ended October 28, up 47.725 billion USD week over week.
• Fed total assets on Wednesday October 28 were 6.745635 trillion USD, down 7.969 billion USD week over week.
• October 29 nominal 2Y yield was 4.61%.
• October 29 nominal 10Y yield was 4.98%.
• October 29 nominal 30Y yield was 5.32%.
• October 29 real 10Y yield was 2.63%.
• October 28 final US spot BTC ETF net flow was +0.1373 billion USD.
• October 29 total stablecoin supply was approximately 297.989 billion USD, seven-day change -1.13%.
• October 29 DXY closed at 101.87 index points.

Public sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/ ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve ; https://farside.co.uk/BTC/ ; https://investors.defillama.com/stablecoins .