BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-10-29

English overview only; the complete original report is in Chinese above, not translated in full. Full report: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-29/daily/

State: S0 TIGHT (62% confidence); drivers: MACRO + FLOW. Bank reserves contracted in the last available Fed weekly data, while the Fed maintained its 3.75%–4.00% target and signalled inflation concerns. Two finalized US spot Bitcoin ETF sessions showed positive flows, but overall stablecoin supply still contracted. Derivatives structure and independently confirmed spot follow-through are insufficient for an S1 upgrade. Feedback gain: DECAYING; policy reaction pressure: APPROACHING, not AT-THRESHOLD. The thesis would change upon sustained positive spot flows and improving liquidity/financial conditions; a liquidation cascade requires independent OI, liquidation and real-selling confirmation.

Verifiable data excerpts used for structured observations: As of Oct 21, weekly-average bank reserves were USD 2.962607 trillion and TGA was USD 0.952002 trillion. Oct 28 nominal Treasury yields: 2Y 4.67%, 3Y 4.80%, 10Y 5.05%, 30Y 5.37%. Oct 28 10-year real Treasury yield: 2.67%. Oct 27 US spot BTC ETF net inflows: USD 176.0 million. Oct 28 stablecoin supply: USD 299.208 billion, 7-day change -0.67%.

Sources: [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/ ; [2] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610 ; [3] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610 ; [4] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm ; [5] https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a1.htm ; [6] https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; [7] https://defillama.com/stablecoins ; [8] https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC ; [9] https://www.sofrrate.com/sofr-rate/2026-10 ; [10] https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-likely-go-into-wait-and-see-mode-rates-2026-10-28/