BTC Liquidity State-Machine Daily | October 27, 2026

BTC Liquidity State-Machine Daily | 2026-10-27. This is an English overview only; the full original report is in Chinese. Public report URL: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-27/daily/.

State S0 TIGHT, qualitative confidence 67%, drivers MACRO + FLOW. Federal Reserve reserves remain under pressure from the Treasury General Account; stablecoin supply continues to shrink. Treasury real yields were stable on October 26 while the dollar strengthened and the latest completed Bitcoin ETF session showed redemptions. Bitcoin liquidation intensity has eased since the weekend, but no continuous spot-led positive feedback is verified. Feedback Gain: DECAYING. Policy Reaction Pressure: APPROACHING, not AT-THRESHOLD. No S1 or S3 transition is verified; monitor completed ETF flows, reserve/TGA funding conditions and BTC OI/funding/liquidations.

Verified figures (with original observation dates): Bank reserves 2.962607 trillion USD (2026-10-21 weekly average); TGA 0.952002 trillion USD (2026-10-21 weekly average); 2-year US Treasury yield 4.68% (2026-10-26); 10-year nominal Treasury yield 5.00% (2026-10-26); 30-year nominal Treasury yield 5.31% (2026-10-26); 10-year real yield 2.66% (2026-10-26); Bitcoin ETF net flow -137.9 million USD (2026-10-23 completed day); stablecoin supply 299.968 billion USD (2026-10-26), down 0.77% over seven days; SOFR minus IORB +2bp (2026-10-23); DXY 101.91 index points (2026-10-26). October 26 ETF fund reporting is substantially incomplete: zero totals do not establish a zero net flow.

Sources: [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/ ; [2] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610 ; [3] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610 ; [4] https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; [5] https://defillama.com/stablecoins ; [6] https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC ; [7] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR ; [8] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB ; [9] https://www.investing.com/indices/usdollar-historical-data ; [10] https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/u-s-stocks-rise-ahead-of-tech-earnings-d53bc5e5 ; [11] https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/ai-gloom-revives-the-specter-of-stagflation-mcgeever-2026-10-26/