BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-10-26

English overview only. The complete original report is in Chinese above, not fully translated here. Public permalink: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-26/daily/

S0 TIGHT, 65% confidence, driven by FLOW and POSITIONING. The October 21 H.4.1 release shows a decline in bank reserves as the Treasury General Account increased. The last US ETF session on October 23 remains preliminary because HODL is unreported, while stablecoin supply keeps contracting. October 24 saw a sharp market-wide long-liquidation burst, but the evidence does not yet establish the sustained BTC-specific deleveraging loop required for S3. Q is TIGHTENING, P NEUTRAL, g TIGHTENING, F FRAGILE-NEGATIVE. Feedback Gain is DECAYING; Policy Reaction Pressure is APPROACHING but not at threshold. The main falsification tests are sustained genuine BTC demand, better Q/P conditions, or a confirmed self-reinforcing deleveraging process.

Verified observations (dates/units are source-specific): Bank reserves (weekly avg, Oct 21): USD 2.962607 trillion. TGA (weekly avg, Oct 21): USD 0.952002 trillion. 10-year real yield (Oct 23): 2.66%. BTC ETF (Oct 23, partial): -USD 137.9 million, HODL missing. Stablecoin market cap (Oct 25): USD 300.34 billion, 7d -0.67%. 2-year Treasury nominal yield (Oct 23): 4.69%. 10-year Treasury nominal yield (Oct 23): 5.00%. 30-year Treasury nominal yield (Oct 23): 5.33%. SOFR minus IORB (Oct 22): 0bp.

Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20261022/ ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610 ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610 ; https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; https://defillama.com/stablecoins ; https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC ; https://www.theblock.co/news/markets/2026-10-24-crypto-longs-lose-404-million-in-four-hours-as-bitcoin-briefly-slips-below-80000-431608 ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR ; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB .