BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily — 2026-10-24

BTC Liquidity State-Machine Daily — October 24, 2026. This is an English overview only; the complete original public report is in Chinese. Full Chinese report: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-24/daily/

The state stays S1 TRANSITION (68% confidence; FLOW + MACRO), with downside transition risk toward S0. Q is TIGHTENING on the weekly reserve drain; P is NEUTRAL with a modest daily real-yield rebound; g is TIGHTENING after a broad-based USD 635.6m spot ETF outflow on Oct 22; F is FRAGILE-NEGATIVE, not confirmed forced deleveraging. ETF data for Oct 23 are incomplete. The key falsification tests are sustained cash outflows and reserves drain for S0, confirmed spot demand and supportive Q/P for S2, and forced liquidations plus deteriorating g/P for S3. No price-only regime switch is permitted.

Verified monitoring excerpts:

• Week ended October 21: bank reserves were 2.962607 trillion USD.
• Week ended October 21: TGA was 0.952002 trillion USD.
• October 23: 2-year nominal Treasury yield was 4.69%.
• October 23: 10-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.00%.
• October 23: 30-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.33%.
• October 23: 10-year real Treasury yield was 2.66%.
• October 22: final US spot BTC ETF net inflows were -0.6356 billion USD.
• October 23: stablecoin supply was approximately 300.911 billion USD.

Primary sources: [1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/ ; [2] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=202610&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve ; [3] https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve ; [4] https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; [5] https://investors.defillama.com/stablecoins ; [6] https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC ; [7] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR ; [8] https://apnews.com/article/e07c72bc5cbe5dffe352ddf30054e35f ; [9] https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-skip-october-raise-rates-again-december-nearly-all-economists-say-2026-10-20/.