BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-10-23

This is an English overview only. The complete public research report is in Chinese; this is not a complete English translation. Full original: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-23/daily/

State: S1 TRANSITION, confidence 78%, MACRO + FLOW. Weekly bank reserves fell materially while the Treasury General Account rose. On October 22, Treasury nominal and real yields dropped during a technology-led risk-off session, which is not equivalent to healthy financial easing. Spot BTC ETF inflows were confirmed for October 19–21, but October 22 data remain preliminary and stablecoin supply has not resumed seven-day growth. BTC declined with higher liquidation activity, but no confirmed self-reinforcing deleveraging loop. Remain S1, with increased S0 risk. Feedback gain: DECAYING. Policy reaction pressure: APPROACHING, not triggered.

Evidence and dates: Fed week ended Oct 21; Treasury and ETFs Oct 22 unless otherwise stated. Primary references: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/ ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve ; https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; https://investors.defillama.com/stablecoins ; https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC .

Monitoring observations with original units and dates

• Bank reserves 2.962607 trillion USD (week ended 2026-10-21).
• TGA 0.952002 trillion USD (week ended 2026-10-21).
• US Treasury nominal 2Y yield 4.65% on 2026-10-22.
• US Treasury nominal 10Y yield 4.96% on 2026-10-22.
• US Treasury nominal 30Y yield 5.29% on 2026-10-22.
• US 10Y real yield 2.64% on 2026-10-22.
• US spot BTC ETF final net inflow 5.248 hundred-million USD on 2026-10-21.
• US spot BTC ETF preliminary net outflow 1.640 hundred-million USD on 2026-10-22; major funds pending.
• Total stablecoin supply about 3014.96 hundred-million USD on 2026-10-22, seven-day change -0.53%.

Core falsification: continued Q drainage alongside broad funding stress and weak spot flows would favor S0; sustained spot demand plus non-tightening Q/P and healthy leverage would favor S2; a price shock causing recurring liquidations, fast OI contraction, and worsening flows/funding would be required for S3.