BTC Liquidity State Machine | 2026-10-22
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ARGUSX / DAILY RESEARCH

BTC Liquidity State Machine | 2026-10-22

· Global liquidity

S1 TRANSITION (72%). ETF buying improves but stablecoin supply contracts and rising OI leaves leverage quality unconfirmed. Await final flows and healthier feedback.

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Research summary; this is not the complete original report.

English overview only, not a full translation. Historical October 22 assessment: S1 TRANSITION (72%). ETF buying breadth improved on preliminary October 21 data, but stablecoin supply contracted and leverage quality remained unconfirmed. Feedback STABLE, tentative and low confidence; policy pressure APPROACHING. Original contemporaneous data and full A–J reasoning are preserved in Chinese. Some original article links remain unavailable; public data source pages are supplied. No reconstructed numeric observations are submitted.

Public sources

  1. Federal Reserve H.4.1 historical releases
  2. US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, 2026
  3. US Treasury Daily Par Real Yield Curve Rates, 2026
  4. Farside Investors US Bitcoin ETF Daily Flow
  5. DefiLlama Stablecoins Market Cap
  6. CoinGlass BTC Futures and Spot Dashboard
  7. New York Fed SOFR rate data

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