BTC Liquidity State Machine — 2026-10-21

ARGUS BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily — 2026-10-21 This is an English overview only. The complete original report, including tables, evidence, thesis falsifiers and next checks, is in Chinese: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-21/daily/ State: S1 TRANSITION (75% confidence), drivers FLOW and MACRO. A previously incomplete October 19 US spot Bitcoin ETF count is now a final inflow of $526.7 million, chiefly BlackRock IBIT; October 20 remains preliminary. Treasury real yields and the dollar eased, but stablecoin supply continues contracting, so S2 is not confirmed. Feedback gain remains DECAYING with early recovery to be tested. Policy reaction pressure APPROACHING, not at threshold. Stop conditions include sustained flow recovery and low-leverage strength for S2, renewed monetary tightening and weak inflows for S0, or a verified liquidation spiral with worsening flow/funding for S3. Data excerpts (original source dates and units): Bank reserves: 3.02214 trillion USD (week ending Oct 14). TGA: 0.88337 trillion USD (week ending Oct 14). Oct 20 2Y Treasury nominal yield: 4.79%. Oct 20 10Y Treasury nominal yield: 5.12%. Oct 20 30Y Treasury nominal yield: 5.42%. Oct 20 10Y real yield: 2.77%. Oct 19 BTC ETF net flow: +526.7 million USD. Oct 20 stablecoin market cap proxy: 301.395 billion USD (7-day -0.74%). Sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20261015/ ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve ; https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; https://defillama.com/stablecoins ; https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC