ARGUSX.BTC Liquidity State Report | 2026-10-20
S1 TRANSITION. Quantity and funding conditions are neutral overall, BTC-specific flows remain weak, and healthy positive feedback is unconfirmed. Real yields and the dollar tightened at the margin.
English overview, not a full translation. This is the dated 2026-10-20 research report, preserving its original morning cutoff and data availability. The state remains S1 TRANSITION; Q and P are neutral overall, g is tightening, and F has not established healthy positive feedback. October 19 ETF flows were incomplete at the research cutoff and are preliminary, not final. The original Chinese A–J report contains the full causal reasoning, evidence tables and conditional invalidation framework.
Dated research observations (report excerpts; not verified-series replacements): treasury-2y: 4.77 % (2026-10-19; final). treasury-10y: 5.15 % (2026-10-19; final). treasury-30y: 5.48 % (2026-10-19; final). real-yield: 2.8 % (2026-10-19; final). bank-reserves: 3.02214 万亿美元 (2026-10-14; final). tga: 0.88337 万亿美元 (2026-10-14; final). btc-etf-flow: -1.385 亿美元 (2026-10-19; preliminary). stablecoins: 3022.91 亿美元 (2026-10-19; final).
Public sources
- Fed H.4.1 — October 15, 2026
- U.S. Treasury — nominal yields
- U.S. Treasury — real yields
- Farside — BTC ETF flows
- DefiLlama — stablecoins
- CoinGlass — BTC snapshot
- Reuters — AI credit, October 16
- SOFR historical observations
- Federal Reserve IORB
- Reuters — tech and credit rebound, October 19
- Reuters — AI financing commitments, October 19