BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | 2026-10-14

English research summary. The complete A–J report is provided in Chinese; this is a summary, not a full translation.

Data window: the October 13 U.S. close, with BTC derivatives and stablecoin snapshots recorded in the original October 14 morning report (08:20–08:23 Beijing time). Dynamic pages may have updated since that snapshot.

S1 TRANSITION remains the main state at 73% confidence, driven by MACRO + FLOW. Q is SUPPORTIVE on the latest October 7 weekly averages. P improves from TIGHTENING to NEUTRAL as nominal/real Treasury yields and the dollar decline. F tentatively improves from FRAGILE-NEGATIVE to NEUTRAL following a BTC rebound, but g remains TIGHTENING: the latest complete ETF day was negative and stablecoin supply contracted. Neither S2 nor S3 is confirmed.

BTC was approximately $83,208, up 1.72% over 24 hours in the original snapshot; open interest was about $52.33 billion and BTC futures liquidations about $107.4 million. These are historical snapshot values, not current quotes. Funding and continuous comparable OI data were insufficient to confirm a healthy positive feedback loop. The original October 13 partial ETF total of +$6.7 million was incomplete and must not be treated as a final net inflow.

Expected versus actual behavior is broadly consistent: liquidity buffering and easier funding prices allow a rebound without sufficient real flows for S2. Better absorption of selling is only a potential positive residual. Feedback gain is tentatively STABLE, with low confidence, not STRENGTHENING. Policy pressure is APPROACHING the reaction threshold; high long-end rates remain a constraint, but available tools and official signals do not constitute actual liquidity injection.

S2 requires sustained completed-day ETF inflows, stablecoin stabilization, supportive Q/P, and relative strength without excessive leverage. S0 would require renewed sustained Q drainage and P tightening with unrepaired flows. S3 requires continuous liquidation amplification and rapid comparable OI contraction plus additional selling or worsening g/P. Watch ETF flows and stablecoins, OI/funding/liquidations, and real yields/DXY/SOFR-IORB. The investment implication is to wait for reconfirmation and avoid restoring high leverage after a single rebound.

Observation excerpts and units:

Weekly-average bank reserves were approximately $3.030 trillion for October 7.

The weekly-average TGA was approximately $0.880 trillion for October 7.

The 2-year nominal Treasury yield was 4.79% on October 13.

The 10-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.21% on October 13.

The 30-year nominal Treasury yield was 5.56% on October 13.

The 10-year real Treasury yield was 2.88% on October 13.

Spot BTC ETF net flows were -$0.654 hundred million on October 12, equivalent to a $65.4 million outflow.

The original October 14 morning snapshot recorded stablecoin supply near $3059.44 hundred million, down 0.53% over seven days; this is a historical snapshot, not a subsequent live value.

DXY was approximately 102.18 in the Reuters market report for October 13.

October 9 SOFR was 3.87% and IORB was 3.90%, giving a SOFR-minus-IORB spread of -3bp; this is not an October 13 funding reading.

Reserve and TGA values retain the rounding used in the report; original Fed source values are 3,029,659 and 880,253 million dollars. The adjacent 3-year nominal Treasury yield was 4.90%, distinct from the 2-year 4.79%. The funding spread is calculated from two public rates.