ARGUS.BTC liquidity daily · Historical module backfill
Original report: Q/P improved at the margin, while BTC-specific flows and market feedback remained under pressure. Sustained self-reinforcing deleveraging was not confirmed; no upgrade to S3.
This is a module backfill of an already-public historical report, not a new research run. Values and interpretations retain the original data windows; the complete original text and sources are linked below.
## overall · S1 TRANSITION Evidence through: 2026-10-09 Original report: Q/P improved at the margin, while BTC-specific flows and market feedback remained under pressure. Sustained self-reinforcing deleveraging was not confirmed; no upgrade to S3.
## Q · SUPPORTIVE Evidence through: 2026-10-07 Weekly-average reserves through October 7 were about USD 3.030 trillion; TGA about USD 880.3 billion. The October 8 H.4.1 release indicated fiscal cash release. See verified charts for precise values.
## P · NEUTRAL · Marginal improvement Evidence through: 2026-10-08 10Y about 5.22%, 10Y real yield about 2.87%, 30Y about 5.60%, DXY about 101.91. Marginal easing did not establish cheap absolute funding conditions.
## g · TIGHTENING · ETF incomplete Evidence through: 2026-10-09 October 7 ETF final outflow was USD 484.9 million. October 8 reported outflow was USD 238.6 million, with IBIT missing. Stablecoin supply around USD 307.2 billion on October 9 morning did not substitute for BTC-specific spot demand.
## F · FRAGILE-NEGATIVE Evidence through: 2026-10-09 BTC about 81.7K, total OI about USD 52.68 billion, BTC-contract 24h liquidations about USD 304 million. One window does not establish sustained acceleration. OI scopes and liquidation windows must not be mixed.
October 7 spot BTC ETF final net outflow was USD 484.9 million.
October 8 reported net outflow was USD 238.6 million; IBIT was missing, so this was not a final whole-market total.
October 9 morning stablecoin total supply was about USD 307.2 billion; this was a supply snapshot, not daily net issuance.