US Energy Inflation Weekly: Distillate Stocks Reverse, Diesel Pump Pressure Returns

The full original report is in Chinese. This is an English overview, not a complete translation. Full Chinese report: https://argusx.fun/research/energy/2026-11-02/weekly/

Regime: Hidden Refined-Product Pressure. The prior distillate inventory rebound reversed, US pump diesel and national carrier fuel surcharges rose, yet a consistently sourced spot 3-2-1 refining margin eased. This is not verified broad energy reacceleration or clean energy inflation easing. US Treasury 2Y yields fell despite energy concerns, making causality ambiguous. Verify inventory rebuilding, contract-matched product cracks and actual retail/freight pass-through before changing regime.

As-of observations: On Oct 27, Cushing WTI spot was $103.37/bbl. On Oct 27, Gulf Coast spot 3-2-1 crack spread was $50.20/bbl. For the week ended Oct 23, US distillate stocks were 102.8 million barrels. For the week ended Oct 23, US refinery utilization was 92.8%. On Oct 26, US on-highway retail diesel averaged $6.352/gallon. Effective Oct 28, Oak Harbor LTL fuel surcharge was 54.2%. Effective Oct 28, Oak Harbor TL fuel surcharge was 87.5%.

Sources include Reuters (Oct 23, 28, 30), EIA, Treasury, FedEx Freight, Oak Harbor, and EIA-spot-derived spread calculations listed in the Chinese original.