Oil Supply Shock | Qatar mediation in Tehran and US no-strike Sunday

[English overview; not a full translation] As of Beijing October 26 at 01:40, AP reports that President Trump ruled out an attack on Iran on Sunday, and Reuters reports US-coordinated Qatari mediators physically in Tehran. Compared with earlier reports of a possible Sunday strike, this changes the immediate military-versus-diplomatic probability distribution but does not establish an agreement, blockade removal or reopened oil flows. Saudi equities closed down 2.7% on Sunday, while crude futures have no normal post-event settlement. Friday, October 23 Brent futures settled at $116.72/bbl and WTI at $103.27/bbl. Previously dated Kpler, freight and EIA reports show recovering oil flows but persistent expensive logistics and subnormal distillate inventories. We retain a high geopolitical and logistics risk premium rather than a new verified sustained physical-supply regime change. Falsifiers are multiday net export losses accompanied by matched-contract backwardation, diesel cracks and real freight/insurance prices; conversely confirmed executed reopening and physical cost normalization would change the thesis. Missing data are insufficient and are never inferred from unrelated contracts or dates.