China Risk-on Weekly Nov 2: Orders Weaken, Downgrade to ARMED

English overview only. Full original report is in Chinese: https://argusx.fun/research/china/2026-11-02/weekly/ As of 08:07 China Standard Time, China Risk-on downgraded from 6/10 (early RISK-ON) to 5/10 (ARMED), primarily because October manufacturing orders fell below 50 and non-manufacturing new orders weakened further. The China Reflation Clock stays in R2 Financial Expansion (90% model confidence): the state-financial balance sheet remains supportive, but private borrowing, M1 and real investment have not shown persistent recovery. September industrial profits improved, concentrated in electronics and resource-linked sectors, which does not confirm broad R4 reflation. The RMB Structural Balance stays STRONG, with positive September FX conversion but slowing cross-border net inflows. The estimated probability of further broad easing in the next three months rises to 75%–85%; policy rate cuts are less probable. Asset-market prices and leverage provide negative rather than positive reflation confirmation. Public market analysis only, not personalized investment instructions.

Verified observations (source-date specific; full reasoning in Chinese):

• October manufacturing PMI: 49.3.
• October manufacturing new orders: 49.4.
• October non-manufacturing new orders: 44.4.
• September monthly industrial-profit YoY: 14.4%.
• January-September industrial-profit YTD YoY: 15.5%.
• September M1 YoY: 3.2%.
• September M2 YoY: 7.2%.
• September M1-M2 gap: -4.0 pp.
• September bank net FX settlement: USD 56.2 billion.
• September nonbank cross-border net inflow: USD 40.7 billion.
• September goods trade surplus: USD 133.53 billion.
• September PPI YoY: 5.0%.
• October 23 CFETS RMB basket index: 103.41.

Source links are listed in the Chinese full report.