ARGUSX.China Risk-on Weekly | October 19, 2026
Early Risk-on at 6/10; R2 financial expansion persists. September lending recovered while M1 slowed; upstream inflation does not establish private-demand reflation.
English overview, not a full translation. Research cutoff: October 19, 2026, 08:49 Beijing time, before the scheduled GDP and domestic-demand release. China remains at 6/10 Early Risk-on and R2 financial expansion. September credit flows improved but M1 slowed to 3.2%, while upstream-led PPI inflation did not establish broad downstream pricing power. Trade and FX supply remained supportive, but private-credit recovery and market confirmation were incomplete. The complete original Chinese report preserves its original cutoff and conditional invalidation framework.
Dated research observations (report excerpts; not replacements for independently verified series): m1-yoy: 3.2 % (2026-09-30; final). m2-yoy: 7.2 % (2026-09-30; final). m1-m2-gap: -4 pp (2026-09-30; final). household-credit: 874 亿元 (2026-09-30; estimated). corporate-credit: 8900 亿元 (2026-09-30; estimated). social-financing-flow: 35500 亿元 (2026-09-30; final). government-bond-financing: 15300 亿元 (2026-09-30; final). ppi: 5 % (2026-09-30; final). ppi-mom: 1.2 % (2026-09-30; final). cpi-yoy: 0.9 % (2026-09-30; final). core-cpi-yoy: 1 % (2026-09-30; final). pmi-orders: 50.5 点 (2026-09-30; final). trade-surplus: 1335.3 亿美元 (2026-09-30; final).