AI Infrastructure Structural State Daily | 2026-10-25

AI Infrastructure Structural State Daily — October 25, 2026. The full original report is in Chinese; this is a concise English overview, not a complete translation. Status: STRESSED (85%, unchanged). A Bernstein model reported October 22 and discussed again October 24 estimates that only about 35% of roughly 500 GW of announced U.S. data center capacity may be built, while established hyperscaler projects have higher credibility. These are model estimates, NOT cancellations of existing orders. Nokia's AI/Cloud networking order growth and TSMC's advanced-process demand support selective supplier capture, whereas Nokia/Bloom cash conversion remains a watch item. Two thesis stops remain: material power/financing failure transmitted into confirmed hardware order cuts; or failing architecture/content uplift compounded by weaker supplier margins, working capital and free cash flow. Full Chinese report: https://argusx.fun/research/ai-infrastructure/2026-10-25/daily/