ARGUS BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily — 2026-11-02
**English overview only. The complete original research report is in Chinese, not a full English translation.** Canonical report link: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-11-02/daily/

As of November 2, 2026, 00:30 UTC, the dominant state remains **S3 DELEVERAGING (58% confidence; FLOW + POSITIONING)**, down from 60% on November 1. Forced liquidations have cooled following the Binance security incident and staged resumption of withdrawals, yet the most recent US spot BTC ETF session and the stablecoin supply trend remain negative. We therefore cannot confirm the required stabilization of genuine BTC cash inflows for a transition to S1. This is not evidence of a sustained S2 risk-on regime.

Q / USD liquidity: Tightening. The Federal Reserve's weekly average bank reserves fell by $68.837bn and the Treasury General Account rose by $47.725bn in the week ending October 28. 
P / funding price: Neutral. October 30 ten-year real yield was 2.60%; the latest paired SOFR minus IORB spread, as of October 29, was +4bp. This does not demonstrate disorderly repo markets.
g / real BTC flow: Tightening. The October 30 ETF net outflow was $643.2m; stablecoins totaled $296.137bn as of November 1, down 1.39% in seven days.
F / positioning feedback: Neutral but not healthy-positive. Liqwall's November 2, 00:22 UTC BTC snapshot was about $78,408, with $22.9m rolling 24h BTC liquidations, $29.9bn OI (down 1.4% in 24h), and +0.0062% average eight-hour funding. These figures must not be mixed with differently scoped OI sources.
Two signals: Binance resumed selected withdrawals November 1; reported early platform withdrawals of $4.65bn and deposits of $1.01bn imply a $3.64bn platform-level net outflow, NOT $3.64bn of BTC selling or ETF outflows. BTC liquidation pressure was substantially below the preceding shock window. The feedback gain is now STABLE, after REVERSING; risk of renewed deleveraging persists.
Expected vs actual: the exchange recovery and slowing liquidations partially absorbed adverse flow data, a single-window potential positive residual but not a structural residual alarm. Policy pressure remains APPROACHING, not AT-THRESHOLD: continuing reserve drain is not an actual new Fed asset injection. Watch Monday ETF flows, verified BTC-specific liquidation/OI/funding and market depth, and the next Fed reserves/TGA and same-date SOFR-IORB observations.
Thesis falsifiers: sustained cessation of forced liquidations with stable genuine flows (S3→S1); renewed self-reinforcing forced selling alongside deteriorating funding/flows (S3 persists); and sustained positive g plus supportive Q/P and non-fragile F for any future S2.
Investment implication: reduce leverage and await cross-layer confirmation. This is not a mechanical trade signal.

Verified metric lines used in the structured observations:
Bank reserves: 2.893770 trillion USD, weekly average through 2026-10-28.
Treasury General Account: 0.999727 trillion USD, weekly average through 2026-10-28.
10Y real yield: 2.60% on 2026-10-30.
2Y nominal Treasury yield: 4.56% on 2026-10-30.
10Y nominal Treasury yield: 4.94% on 2026-10-30.
30Y nominal Treasury yield: 5.31% on 2026-10-30.
SOFR minus IORB: +4bp on 2026-10-29.
US spot BTC ETF flow: -0.6432 billion USD on 2026-10-30.
Total stablecoin supply: 296.137 billion USD on 2026-11-01.

Sources:
1. Federal Reserve H.4.1, October 29 2026 release (week through October 28): https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/
2. US Treasury daily nominal par yields, October 2026: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610
3. US Treasury daily TIPS real par yields, October 2026: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610
4. Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETF flow table: https://farside.co.uk/btc/
5. DefiLlama, total stablecoin market capitalization, November 1 2026: https://defillama.com/stablecoins
6. Liqwall BTC liquidations funding and open interest, snapshot November 2 00:22 UTC: https://liqwall.com/coins/btc
7. CoinDesk, Binance phased withdrawal restart November 1 2026: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/01/binance-opens-crypto-withdrawals-in-phases-starting-with-bitcoin-following-usd6-3-billion-hack
8. Financial Times, Binance net outflows after resuming withdrawals November 1 2026: https://www.ft.com/content/1d4dd7b2-9dee-433b-ac2a-e8022af1dd07
9. Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR via FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR
10. Federal Reserve October 28 2026 implementation note and IORB: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a1.htm

## Public sources

- [Federal Reserve H.4.1, October 29 2026 release (week through October 28)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/)
- [US Treasury daily nominal par yields, October 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610)
- [US Treasury daily TIPS real par yields, October 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610)
- [Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETF flow table](https://farside.co.uk/btc/)
- [DefiLlama, total stablecoin market capitalization, November 1 2026](https://defillama.com/stablecoins)
- [Liqwall BTC liquidations funding and open interest, snapshot November 2 00:22 UTC](https://liqwall.com/coins/btc)
- [CoinDesk, Binance phased withdrawal restart November 1 2026](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/11/01/binance-opens-crypto-withdrawals-in-phases-starting-with-bitcoin-following-usd6-3-billion-hack)
- [Financial Times, Binance net outflows after resuming withdrawals November 1 2026](https://www.ft.com/content/1d4dd7b2-9dee-433b-ac2a-e8022af1dd07)
- [Federal Reserve Bank of New York SOFR via FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR)
- [Federal Reserve October 28 2026 implementation note and IORB](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a1.htm)