English overview only — the full original report is in Chinese above; this is NOT a complete English translation. Full Chinese report link: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-11-01/daily/

November 1, 2026 (Asia/Shanghai): **S3 DELEVERAGING, 60% confidence, FLOW + POSITIONING.** The October 30 final US spot Bitcoin ETF outflow of $643.2 million and shrinking stablecoin supply continue to pressure verifiable cash demand. Binance states 90% of affected assets have been replenished with its SAFU, insurance and corporate resources; this is not a 90% recovery of stolen funds, nor proof that withdrawals have actually resumed. Although the latest BTC price snapshot has stabilized modestly, same-scope liquidation, basis and funding histories are insufficient to certify that deleveraging has ended. S3 to S1 requires the forced-selling feedback to stop, operational transferability to return, and actual inflows to stabilize.

Primary-source observations (same units as Chinese report):
Bank reserves: 2.893770 trillion USD (week ended 2026-10-28).
Treasury General Account: 0.999727 trillion USD (week ended 2026-10-28).
2Y Treasury: 4.56% (2026-10-30).
10Y Treasury: 4.94% (2026-10-30).
30Y Treasury: 5.31% (2026-10-30).
10Y real yield: 2.60% (2026-10-30).
BTC ETF flow: -6.432 hundred-million USD (2026-10-30, final).
Total stablecoin supply: 2967.21 hundred-million USD (2026-10-31).
Policy reaction threshold: APPROACHING, not reached. Feedback gain: REVERSING, with signs of easing but no verified resolution. Investment implication: reduce leverage and wait for independent cross-layer confirmation.

Public sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ ; https://farside.co.uk/btc/ ; https://defillama.com/stablecoins ; https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC ; https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/detail/1fdf1f61559c401da0435895ffcccb62

## Public sources

- [Federal Reserve H.4.1, 2026-10-29 release](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/)
- [US Treasury October 2026 nominal yield curve](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value_month=202610&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve)
- [US Treasury October 2026 real (TIPS) yield curve](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&field_tdr_date_value_month=202610&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve)
- [Farside US spot Bitcoin ETF flows](https://farside.co.uk/btc/)
- [DefiLlama stablecoin supply](https://defillama.com/stablecoins)
- [CoinGlass BTC spot and OI snapshot](https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC)
- [Binance 2026-10-31 recovery update #3](https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/detail/1fdf1f61559c401da0435895ffcccb62)
- [Binance 2026-10-30 security incident announcement](https://www.binance.com/en/support/announcement/detail/c5a8729a97ac486d963784d96c5642d7)