# BTC Liquidity State Machine — October 30, 2026
This is an English overview; the **complete original report is in Chinese**, not translated in full. Full Chinese edition: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-30/daily/

**State: S0 TIGHT (72% confidence); drivers MACRO + FLOW.** Q is tightening: bank reserves declined again as Treasury cash balances rose. P is mixed: Treasury real yields and DXY fell, while repo funding and credit conditions do not yet confirm broad easing. g is mixed: US spot BTC ETFs gained $423.6m in Oct 26-28, almost entirely through IBIT, while stablecoin supply continued shrinking. F remains fragile and unconfirmed rather than in a documented deleveraging cascade. Feedback gain DECAYING; policy reaction pressure APPROACHING. A one-window negative residual remains inconclusive because Q and stablecoin supply are contracting. Next: ETF/stablecoin flows, reserve balances/TGA versus SOFR-IORB, and comparable BTC OI/funding/basis/liquidations. No price-only thesis stop.

### Verified observation excerpts (as published in the Chinese report)
- Reserve balances averaged 2.893770 trillion USD in the week ended October 28, down 68.837 billion USD week over week.
- TGA averaged 0.999727 trillion USD in the week ended October 28, up 47.725 billion USD week over week.
- Fed total assets on Wednesday October 28 were 6.745635 trillion USD, down 7.969 billion USD week over week.
- October 29 nominal 2Y yield was 4.61%.
- October 29 nominal 10Y yield was 4.98%.
- October 29 nominal 30Y yield was 5.32%.
- October 29 real 10Y yield was 2.63%.
- October 28 final US spot BTC ETF net flow was +0.1373 billion USD.
- October 29 total stablecoin supply was approximately 297.989 billion USD, seven-day change -1.13%.
- October 29 DXY closed at 101.87 index points.

Public sources: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/ ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve ; https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve ; https://farside.co.uk/BTC/ ; https://investors.defillama.com/stablecoins .

## Public sources

- [Federal Reserve H.4.1, October 29, 2026 (week ended Oct 28)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/)
- [US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve, October 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve)
- [US Treasury Daily Par Real Yield Curve, October 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve)
- [Farside Investors US Spot Bitcoin ETF Fund Flows](https://farside.co.uk/BTC/)
- [DefiLlama Stablecoin Market Capitalization and Supply](https://investors.defillama.com/stablecoins)
- [DXY historical daily closing prices, Oct 2026](https://portfolio-terminal.com/markets/us-dollar-index/october-2026)
- [SOFR Oct 2026 daily history, reporting NY Fed benchmark](https://www.sofrrate.com/sofr-rate/2026-10)
- [New York Fed reference rates methodology](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates)
- [Bitcoin October 2026 historical daily prices](https://ca.investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/historical-data)
- [US stock market Oct 29, 2026 closes](https://portfolio-terminal.com/markets/stock-market-close/october-29-2026)
- [FT: US tech shares fall on AI investment return concerns, Oct 29](https://www.ft.com/content/1639620b-99e7-47ed-8484-49646816489e)