English overview, not a full translation. This is the dated 2026-10-18 research report, preserving its original morning cutoff and data availability. The state remains S1 TRANSITION; Q and P are neutral overall, g is tightening, and F has not established healthy positive feedback. Do not count the same weekly or previous trading-day observation as a new independent signal. The original Chinese A–J report contains the full causal reasoning, evidence tables and conditional invalidation framework.

Dated research observations (report excerpts; not verified-series replacements):
treasury-2y: 4.74 % (2026-10-16; final).
treasury-10y: 5.09 % (2026-10-16; final).
treasury-30y: 5.43 % (2026-10-16; final).
real-yield: 2.74 % (2026-10-16; final).
bank-reserves: 3.02214 万亿美元 (2026-10-14; final).
tga: 0.88337 万亿美元 (2026-10-14; final).
btc-etf-flow: -0.824 亿美元 (2026-10-16; final).
stablecoins: 3025.42 亿美元 (2026-10-17; final).

## Public sources

- [Fed H.4.1 — October 15, 2026](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20261015/)
- [U.S. Treasury — nominal yields](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value_month=202610&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve)
- [U.S. Treasury — real yields](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve)
- [Farside — BTC ETF flows](https://farside.co.uk/btc/)
- [DefiLlama — stablecoins](https://defillama.com/stablecoins)
- [CoinGlass — BTC snapshot](https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC)
- [Reuters — AI credit, October 16](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/private-credit-roundup-coreweaves-debt-stress-tests-private-credits-ai-financing-2026-10-16/)
- [Federal Reserve IORB](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB)
- [500metrics — SOFR](https://500metrics.com/rates/sofr)