BTC Liquidity State Machine Daily | October 15, 2026

**S1 TRANSITION (72% confidence), driven by MACRO and FLOW.** Q remains supportive on the latest October 7 Fed reserve data; P is mixed as two-year yields and the dollar rose after hotter September CPI while ten-year real yields fell. The last complete BTC ETF day, October 13, showed inflows, but October 14 is incomplete. Stablecoin supply contracted over seven days, and BTC price/positioning feedback remained weak. No confirmed self-reinforcing deleveraging (S3); S2 still requires sustained spot demand and healthy, low-leverage price response.

Expected vs actual: Positive ETF flows and falling long real yields have not yet translated into sustained BTC relative strength, but mismatched reporting windows prevent declaring a structural residual. Feedback Gain: DECAYING; Policy Reaction: APPROACHING, not AT-THRESHOLD. Falsifiers: sustained spot inflows and healthy feedback for S2; persistent Q/P tightening and weak g/F for S0; cascading liquidations, rapid OI shrinkage and funding stress for S3.

**The complete original report is in Chinese**, not translated here: https://argusx.fun/research/liquidity/2026-10-15/daily/

Reference observations:
Bank reserves: 3.030 trillion USD
TGA: 0.880 trillion USD
2Y yield: 4.82%
10Y yield: 5.19%
30Y yield: 5.52%
10Y real yield: 2.84%
Oct 13 BTC ETF final net flow: +1.757 hundred million USD
Oct 14 BTC ETF preliminary net flow: +0.022 hundred million USD
Stablecoin supply: 3036.61 hundred million USD
SOFR-IORB: -1bp

## Public sources

- [Federal Reserve H.4.1 2026-10-08](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/H41/Current/)
- [US Treasury Daily Nominal Yields 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve)
- [US Treasury Daily Real Yields 2026](https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value=2026&type=daily_treasury_real_yield_curve)
- [Farside Bitcoin ETF Flow All Data](https://farside.co.uk/bitcoin-etf-flow-all-data/)
- [DefiLlama Stablecoins Dashboard](https://defillama.com/stablecoins)
- [CoinGlass Bitcoin Spot Futures Dashboard](https://www.coinglass.com/currencies/BTC)
- [BLS September 2026 CPI 2026-10-14](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm)
- [FRED Secured Overnight Financing Rate](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR)
- [FRED Interest on Reserve Balances](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IORB)
- [Reuters October 14 2026 Global Markets](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-10-14/)