[English overview; not a full translation] As of Beijing October 26 at 01:40, AP reports that President Trump ruled out an attack on Iran on Sunday, and Reuters reports US-coordinated Qatari mediators physically in Tehran. Compared with earlier reports of a possible Sunday strike, this changes the immediate military-versus-diplomatic probability distribution but does not establish an agreement, blockade removal or reopened oil flows. Saudi equities closed down 2.7% on Sunday, while crude futures have no normal post-event settlement. Friday, October 23 Brent futures settled at $116.72/bbl and WTI at $103.27/bbl. Previously dated Kpler, freight and EIA reports show recovering oil flows but persistent expensive logistics and subnormal distillate inventories. We retain a high geopolitical and logistics risk premium rather than a new verified sustained physical-supply regime change. Falsifiers are multiday net export losses accompanied by matched-contract backwardation, diesel cracks and real freight/insurance prices; conversely confirmed executed reopening and physical cost normalization would change the thesis. Missing data are insufficient and are never inferred from unrelated contracts or dates.

## Public sources

- [AP, Iran says messages are still being passed to US, 2026-10-25](https://apnews.com/article/mideast-news-october-25-2026-4779a3deeb1a23f59414164532d5c885)
- [Reuters via Iran International, Qatari mediators in Tehran, 2026-10-25](https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610250887)
- [Reuters, Most Gulf shares close lower, 2026-10-25](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/gulf-bourses-slip-houthi-saudi-clashes-rattle-investors-2026-10-25/)
- [Reuters, Sri Lanka rescues 40 Iranian sailors, 2026-10-25](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-rescues-40-iranian-sailors-spokesman-says-2026-10-25/)
- [Reuters, Oil prices jump $3 on Houthi attacks, 2026-10-23](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-little-changed-supply-concern-lingers-amid-houthi-attacks-saudi-arabia-2026-10-23/)
- [Reuters commentary, Don't mistake Mideast oil rebound for normality, 2026-10-22](https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/dont-mistake-mideast-oil-rebound-normality-2026-10-22/)
- [Reuters, Asian refiners use smaller tankers, 2026-10-20](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asian-refiners-use-smaller-tankers-buy-delivered-crude-freight-rates-soar-2026-10-20/)
- [Reuters, Iran prolongs talks ahead of US midterms, 2026-10-20](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/iran-prolongs-talks-stalemate-influence-us-midterms-officials-say-2026-10-20/)
- [US EIA weekly petroleum report released 2026-10-21](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/)
- [AP, Wall Street loses ground under oil pressure, 2026-10-23](https://apnews.com/article/7b47ef3b037bfba4e34f685329b9b963)