# China Risk-on Structural Weekly | 2026-11-02
**English overview only. Full original report is in Chinese:** https://argusx.fun/research/china/2026-11-02/weekly/
As of 08:07 China Standard Time, China Risk-on downgraded from 6/10 (early RISK-ON) to 5/10 (ARMED), primarily because October manufacturing orders fell below 50 and non-manufacturing new orders weakened further. The China Reflation Clock stays in R2 Financial Expansion (90% model confidence): the state-financial balance sheet remains supportive, but private borrowing, M1 and real investment have not shown persistent recovery. September industrial profits improved, concentrated in electronics and resource-linked sectors, which does not confirm broad R4 reflation. The RMB Structural Balance stays STRONG, with positive September FX conversion but slowing cross-border net inflows. The estimated probability of further broad easing in the next three months rises to 75%–85%; policy rate cuts are less probable. Asset-market prices and leverage provide negative rather than positive reflation confirmation. Public market analysis only, not personalized investment instructions.

Verified observations (source-date specific; full reasoning in Chinese):
- October manufacturing PMI: 49.3.
- October manufacturing new orders: 49.4.
- October non-manufacturing new orders: 44.4.
- September monthly industrial-profit YoY: 14.4%.
- January-September industrial-profit YTD YoY: 15.5%.
- September M1 YoY: 3.2%.
- September M2 YoY: 7.2%.
- September M1-M2 gap: -4.0 pp.
- September bank net FX settlement: USD 56.2 billion.
- September nonbank cross-border net inflow: USD 40.7 billion.
- September goods trade surplus: USD 133.53 billion.
- September PPI YoY: 5.0%.
- October 23 CFETS RMB basket index: 103.41.
Source links are listed in the Chinese full report.

## Public sources

- [国家统计局：2026年10月中国采购经理指数](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261031_1965718.html)
- [国家统计局：2026年1—9月份规模以上工业企业利润](https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202610/t20261027_1965697.html)
- [中国人民银行：2026年前三季度金融统计数据报告（转载全文）](https://www.cfn.cn/index/tushuo/eyesCfnNewsDetail/id/66243.shtml)
- [国家外汇管理局：2026年9月银行结售汇和涉外收付款](https://www.safe.gov.cn/yunnan/2026/1027/1662.html)
- [海关总署9月进出口数据（澎湃报道）](https://m.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_34250728)
- [CFETS 10月23日人民币篮子指数（中国外汇交易中心数据）](https://finance.sina.com.cn/7x24/2026-10-26/doc-iniwpfmx9218510.shtml)
- [10月30日人民币中间价（中国外汇交易中心数据）](https://www.chinanews.com/cj/2026/10-30/10723119.shtml)
- [USD/CNY 10月30日历史收盘](https://cn.investing.com/currencies/usd-cny-historical-data)
- [国家统计局：9月工业生产者价格](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfbhjd/202610/t20261014_1965476.html)
- [国家统计局：9月CPI和PPI解读](https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202610/t20261014_1965475.html)
- [国家统计局：2026年三季度经济及9月内需](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261019_1965618.html)
- [国家外汇管理局：2026年上半年国际收支（报道）](https://cn.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/article-3587676)
- [银行净息差：2026年二季度监管数据](https://www.stcn.com/article/detail/4082818.html)
- [沪深300 2026年10月30日收盘历史](https://cn.investing.com/indices/csi300-historical-data)
- [10月29日两融余额（上海证券报）](https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-10-30/doc-iniwyfwc8376444.shtml)
- [30年中国国债收益率历史数据](https://cn.investing.com/rates-bonds/china-30-year-bond-yield-historical-data)
- [中国房地产业协会：2026年10月成交跟踪](https://www.fangchan.com/data/13/2026-10-31/7522272901236854788.html)
- [中国人民银行结构性政策调整2026年9月29日](https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/indu/2026-09-29/doc-initqeff7161378.shtml)
- [Reuters: China maintains LPR on 20 October 2026](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/china-leaves-loan-rates-steady-17th-consecutive-month-2026-10-20/)
- [恒生科技指数10月30日收盘历史](https://cn.investing.com/indices/hang-seng-tech-historical-data)