# China Risk-on Weekly State Report — 26 October 2026
The complete original research report is in Chinese, not fully translated into English. The full Chinese report is published at https://argusx.fun/research/china/2026-10-26/weekly/ when publication is acknowledged.
Headline: China Risk-on 6/10 (Early RISK-ON), unchanged; the single Reflation Clock phase is R2 (Financial Expansion), confidence 88%. Private credit and M1 have not confirmed R3. Structural fiscal-financial expansion is STRONG. RMB Structural Balance remains STRONG but cross-border flows diverge. Prospective three-month additional broad easing: HIGH, subjective 65–75%; policy-rate cuts: 15–25%. Strong reflation confirmation is NOT triggered.
The key fresh evidence: September retail sales accelerated to 1.1% year on year, but private investment fell 10.4% during January–September and property investment stayed weak; September bank net FX settlement rose to USD 56.2 billion while nonbank cross-border net inflows fell to USD 40.7 billion; first-nine-month central expenditure growth exceeded local expenditure growth. Corporate/household credit and M1 must recover for R3, while a demand-led pass-through into core CPI and profits is necessary for R4. All macro dates and publication dates are explicit in the Chinese source report.

## Verified monitoring excerpts
1. The September 2026 manufacturing PMI new-orders reading was 50.5 points.
2. September 2026 M1 grew 3.2% year on year.
3. The September 2026 M1-minus-M2 growth gap was -4.0 percentage points.
4. September 2026 bank net foreign-exchange settlement was USD 56.2 billion.
5. September 2026 nonbank cross-border net inflows were USD 40.7 billion.
6. September 2026 merchandise trade surplus was USD 133.53 billion.
7. September 2026 retail sales rose 1.1% year on year.
8. Private fixed-asset investment fell 10.4% year on year in January–September 2026.
9. September 2026 producer prices rose 5.0% year on year.
10. The CFETS RMB currency-basket index was 103.70 for the week ending 16 October 2026.

## Source list
[1] 国家统计局：2026年前三季度经济运行情况，2026-10-19 — https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261019_1965618.html
[2] 国家外汇管理局：2026年9月银行结售汇和跨境收付，2026-10-20 — https://www.safe.gov.cn/safe/2026/1020/28004.html
[3] 国家外汇局9月外汇市场形势说明，2026-10-20 — https://www.chinanews.com/cj/2026/10-20/10717977.shtml
[4] 财政部：2026年前三季度财政收支情况，2026-10-23 — https://m.mof.gov.cn/czsj/202610/t20261023_4003380.htm
[5] 国家统计局：2026年9月采购经理指数，2026-09-30 — https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202609/t20260930_1965449.html
[6] 国家统计局：2026年9月PPI，2026-10-14 — https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261014_1965476.html
[7] 国家统计局：2026年9月CPI，2026-10-14 — https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261014_1965477.html
[8] 国家统计局：2026年1—8月工业企业利润，2026-09-28 — https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202609/t20260928_1965425.html
[9] 新华社经济参考报：2026年前三季度金融统计，2026-10-14 — https://jjckb.xinhuanet.com/20261014/240cda3afc8d42c29d069493dfb9ebeb/c.html
[10] 中国银行公布贷款市场报价利率，更新至2026-10-20 — https://www.bankofchina.com/fimarkets/lilv/fd32/201310/t20131031_2591219.html
[11] 路透：2026-10-16周CFETS人民币指数103.70 — https://es.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com%2C2026%3Anewsml_L4S465015%3A0/
[12] 中国外汇交易中心：2026-10-23人民币汇率中间价 — https://www.chinamoney.org.cn/chinese/ccprnoticecontent/index.html?searchDate=2026-10-23
[13] Trading Economics：2026-10-23美元兑人民币即期参考 — https://zh.tradingeconomics.com/china/currency
[14] 澎湃新闻：引用海关总署2026年9月美元贸易数据，2026-10-14 — https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_34250728
[15] 同花顺：A股融资融券历史数据，2026-10-22完整三所值 — https://data.10jqka.com.cn/market/rzrq/
[16] 新华财经：2026-10-23中国债市日报 — https://www.cnfin.com/zs-lb/detail/20261023/4485454_1.html
[17] Investing：恒生科技指数2026年10月16日至23日 — https://cn.investing.com/indices/hang-seng-tech-historical-data
[18] A股日报：2026-10-23市场成交及指数收盘 — https://a.finews.fyi/2026-10-23

## Public sources

- [国家统计局：2026年前三季度经济运行情况，2026-10-19](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261019_1965618.html)
- [国家外汇管理局：2026年9月银行结售汇和跨境收付，2026-10-20](https://www.safe.gov.cn/safe/2026/1020/28004.html)
- [国家外汇局9月外汇市场形势说明，2026-10-20](https://www.chinanews.com/cj/2026/10-20/10717977.shtml)
- [财政部：2026年前三季度财政收支情况，2026-10-23](https://m.mof.gov.cn/czsj/202610/t20261023_4003380.htm)
- [国家统计局：2026年9月采购经理指数，2026-09-30](https://www.stats.gov.cn/zwfwck/sjfb/202609/t20260930_1965449.html)
- [国家统计局：2026年9月PPI，2026-10-14](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261014_1965476.html)
- [国家统计局：2026年9月CPI，2026-10-14](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202610/t20261014_1965477.html)
- [国家统计局：2026年1—8月工业企业利润，2026-09-28](https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202609/t20260928_1965425.html)
- [新华社经济参考报：2026年前三季度金融统计，2026-10-14](https://jjckb.xinhuanet.com/20261014/240cda3afc8d42c29d069493dfb9ebeb/c.html)
- [中国银行公布贷款市场报价利率，更新至2026-10-20](https://www.bankofchina.com/fimarkets/lilv/fd32/201310/t20131031_2591219.html)
- [路透：2026-10-16周CFETS人民币指数103.70](https://es.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com%2C2026%3Anewsml_L4S465015%3A0/)
- [中国外汇交易中心：2026-10-23人民币汇率中间价](https://www.chinamoney.org.cn/chinese/ccprnoticecontent/index.html?searchDate=2026-10-23)
- [Trading Economics：2026-10-23美元兑人民币即期参考](https://zh.tradingeconomics.com/china/currency)
- [澎湃新闻：引用海关总署2026年9月美元贸易数据，2026-10-14](https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_34250728)
- [同花顺：A股融资融券历史数据，2026-10-22完整三所值](https://data.10jqka.com.cn/market/rzrq/)
- [新华财经：2026-10-23中国债市日报](https://www.cnfin.com/zs-lb/detail/20261023/4485454_1.html)
- [Investing：恒生科技指数2026年10月16日至23日](https://cn.investing.com/indices/hang-seng-tech-historical-data)
- [A股日报：2026-10-23市场成交及指数收盘](https://a.finews.fyi/2026-10-23)